FX.co ★ absh kaat | EUR/USD

I begin my analysis of EUR/USD on the daily timeframe by noting that I see clear bullish activity that allowed the price to extend its upward movement and break through the strong zone at 1.16570, which I consider an important level where buyers previously showed strength. I observe that once the price reached this zone, I saw an immediate reaction from sellers, and I believe this selling pressure caused the natural rebound to the downside that we are witnessing now. I think this reaction raises the question of whether the price will continue moving short, and I acknowledge that such a move could theoretically revive the broader bearish trend. I also recognize, however, that before this current pullback, I watched the price successfully break through an important recent high, and I interpret that breakout as a sign that buyers still hold some weight in the market. I remain aware that the price has not moved far from that breakout area, and I believe the stagnation around this level adds uncertainty to the next directional step. I remind myself that there is another strong support zone below at 1.16000, and I view this zone as a significant barrier that may prevent a clean continuation of the downward move. I consider the likelihood of the price dropping straight into a deep bearish continuation somewhat questionable because I think strong support zones like 1.16000 often create hesitation in the market. I also acknowledge the possibility that the pair may slip into a temporary flat or consolidation phase, and I believe this sideways movement could occur under moderate pressure from both buyers and sellers. I ultimately think that after such a flat, the price might attempt to continue heading long again, because I see the market structure still showing hints of bullish intent despite the recent pullback, and I believe the overall picture remains mixed but slightly weighted toward upward continuation.

I believe that moving the EURUSD trade to breakeven was the right and most rational decision, because I always prefer securing a guaranteed result over chasing uncertain potential in a market that often behaves unpredictably. I see that Friday’s decline looked quite confident for the pair, especially considering the complete absence of significant news, and I note that the price managed to consolidate below the moving average, which in my view clearly disrupted any immediate bullish intentions. I do not expect a collapse either, because I personally find it difficult to believe in strong dollar appreciation just days before the Fed meeting, and I think the market is more inclined toward indecision rather than aggressive movement. I observe that the chart does not give me any convincing reversal formations, and I therefore assume that the most logical scenario involves continued fluctuations within a formed channel. I think the boundaries of this channel can be defined roughly along the indicator bands, although I see the price possibly stalling slightly below the upper band rather than testing it completely. I consider that the lower boundary, serving as support, is likely to remain around the 1.1620 level, and I would personally look for buying opportunities from that area. I also recognize that the upper movement potential appears limited, and I would consider the nearest reasonable take-profit at 1.1660, where the pair could easily encounter resistance. I interpret this entire setup as a typical euro-style zigzag, and I expect price behavior to remain choppy, corrective, and directionless until clearer catalysts emerge. I anticipate that this classic sideways pattern will continue to dominate the pair’s behavior, as I do not yet see the conditions necessary for a strong trend to form.