FX.co ★ PipsHunter99 | NZD/USD

Technical and Fundamental Analysis of the NZD/USD pair The New Zealand dollar extended its bullish momentum against the US dollar on Friday, surging toward the 0.5970 region after rebounding strongly from intraday lows near 0.5930. The latest NZD/USD rally reflects growing pressure on the greenback as traders reduce defensive positions ahead of the highly anticipated US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. Market sentiment has gradually shifted away from geopolitical fears surrounding the Middle East conflict and back toward the broader outlook for Federal Reserve monetary policy, creating fresh upside momentum for risk-sensitive currencies like the kiwi. Financial markets are closely watching the upcoming US employment data, with economists forecasting that the US economy added just 62K jobs in April compared to the previous reading of 178K. A weaker labor market report could significantly weaken the US dollar by increasing expectations that the Federal Reserve may eventually soften its hawkish stance. Investors remain cautious after several Fed officials recently hinted at removing references to a future easing bias, making this week’s economic data particularly important for currency market direction. Any downside surprise in payroll figures could accelerate USD selling pressure and support further gains in NZD/USD. At the same time, geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran continue to influence global risk sentiment. Fresh military exchanges earlier this week briefly triggered market uncertainty, although investor reactions have become increasingly measured. US President Donald Trump attempted to reassure markets by reaffirming that the ceasefire agreement remains intact while urging Tehran to move forward with a formal peace arrangement. As fears of a major escalation eased, investors rotated back into higher-yielding and growth-linked assets, helping commodity and risk currencies regain strength against the dollar. Oil markets also contributed to the positive outlook for the New Zealand dollar. Lower energy prices tend to support economies like New Zealand that rely heavily on imported fuel, while also reducing safe-haven demand for the US dollar. The decline in oil-driven inflation fears has additionally strengthened expectations that global central banks may avoid excessively aggressive tightening policies moving forward. Domestic fundamentals in New Zealand have also reinforced bullish sentiment around the kiwi. Recent labor market data showed the unemployment rate unexpectedly declined to 5.3% during the first quarter, signaling resilience in the broader economy despite softer employment growth. Wage pressures also accelerated beyond expectations, increasing speculation that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) may maintain a relatively hawkish policy stance in the coming months. Rising labor costs and persistent inflationary pressures continue to support expectations that interest rates could remain elevated for longer, providing additional support for the NZD. NZD/USD remains firmly positioned within a bullish structure on both the H4 and H1 charts. On the H4 timeframe, the pair confirmed a breakout above the previous resistance zone around 0.5920, transforming that area into a strong demand region supported by prior swing lows and the 200-period SMA. The 50 SMA continues trending upward beneath current price action, reinforcing medium-term buying momentum, while the 20 SMA maintains a steeper bullish slope that reflects strengthening short-term momentum. Immediate resistance is now located around the 0.5980–0.6000 psychological zone, where sellers may attempt to limit further upside expansion. On the H1 chart, price action continues consolidating above the breakout structure, with the 20 SMA remaining comfortably above the 50 SMA, a classic bullish continuation signal. Short-term demand remains visible near 0.5930–0.5940, where moving-average confluence aligns with the previous breakout level. A sustained breakout above 0.5980 could trigger another bullish leg toward 0.6000 and beyond, while failure to hold above 0.5930 may expose the pair to a corrective retracement toward the broader 0.5900–0.5920 support zone. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the H4 timeframe is currently holding below the 70 overbought threshold, suggesting bullish momentum remains healthy without signaling extreme market exhaustion. This indicates NZD/USD may still have room for additional upside before buyers become overstretched.