FX.co ★ blaise.rogahn | USD/CHF

#USD/CHF (M30-H4)

Hello traders! Today, USD/CHF has slightly increased, trading around 0.8090. Nothing super dramatic happened during the day - the pair mostly moved upwards during the American session, following a relatively calm Asian and European session. The most interesting movements were seen during the US session, when the dollar strengthened slightly after news from the Fed and geopolitics (the agreement with Iran regarding the Hormuz strait reduced some risks, but not entirely). Volumes were normal, without sharp shocks. Technical analysis of USD/CHF Now, let's look at the technical analysis of this pair. Looking at the market: on the M30 timeframe, it is visible that the price broke recent levels and is moving upwards along several moving averages (green on top, red and blue below), RSI at 55 - neutral, not overbought. MACD is slightly positive. On the H4 timeframe, the picture is broader - the pair is generally in an ascending channel since June, bounced off support around 0.7800-0.7900, and is currently testing resistance closer to 0.8100. There are signs of smart money accumulation: large players, judging by volumes and price behavior, accumulated long positions on pullbacks, especially after the SNB, which kept rates at zero and hinted at possible interventions, but not aggressively. This weakened the franc as a safe haven. Wave analysis:

Wave analysis: it appears that an impulsive wave 3 or C is developing after a correction. From the lows of May and June, a 5-wave structure is moving upwards. On the H4 timeframe, it is visible that we are in sub-wave 5, with an extension. If we do not break 0.8040 or 0.8060 (previous highs), the target is 0.8120 or 0.8150. A correction could occur towards 0.8020 or in an extreme case 0.8040, where a strong zone is located. Bollinger Bands: on the M30 and H4 timeframes, the bands are expanding upwards, the price at the upper band is a sign of trend strength, but a pullback to the middle band (around 0.8060 possibly 0.8070) is possible. Not breaking the lower band - a bullish signal. Patterns: on the H4 timeframe, something resembling an ascending wedge or continuation flag is forming, plus a double bottom on lower timeframes around 0.7900. Bullish engulfing recently on the daily chart. News background for this week: Relatively calm after the SNB and FOMC from the previous week. Key events include flash PMI for the US and Europe on Tuesday, new home sales on Wednesday, core PCE on Thursday-Friday (if hotter than expected - the dollar will strengthen). Plus speeches by Lagarde and others. Geopolitics with Iran adds positivity to the dollar, but the franc may react to any hints from the SNB regarding interventions. Overall, the background is mildly bullish for USD/CHF. Forecast for the next few days: I believe we will break 0.8095 or 0.8100 and move towards 0.8120 or 0.8135 with a high probability. If we bounce downwards - then a test of 0.8060 and a possible pullback, but smart money is more likely to continue pushing upwards. I will hold long positions with a stop below 0.8050. Wishing everyone profitable trades this week!