FX.co ★ skyboy | GBP/USD

GBP/USD Daily Analysis – My Bias for the Week Ahead After taking a proper look at this Daily chart, I’m going into next week with a bearish bias on GBP/USD. What stands out to me first is the reaction from the upper side of the market. Price previously pushed into the 1.3800–1.3900 resistance zone, took the buy-side liquidity above the previous highs, and then failed to maintain that upside move. Since that liquidity sweep, the market has spent several months trading below the major resistance and repeatedly reacting from the same premium area. For me, that is still the most important story on this chart. There is also an unmitigated bearish Order Block around 1.3600–1.3700, sitting directly below the major resistance. Price has tested this region multiple times but has not produced a clean bullish breakout and acceptance above it. At the moment, GBP/USD is around 1.3360, which is already close to the Daily support zone. Because of that, I don't want to chase a short at the current price. After a move down into support, a retracement would be completely normal, and that retracement is actually what I would prefer to trade. The first important support area is around 1.3300–1.3450. Below that, the chart shows a much stronger demand zone around 1.3100–1.3150, together with an unmitigated bullish Order Block. Liquidity is also interesting. Buy-side liquidity is sitting below the recent lows around the 1.32 area, while the major sell-side liquidity was already swept much higher around the 1.38 region. So, from a Daily SMC perspective, I still see more unfinished downside liquidity than upside opportunity at the current location.

The fundamental picture has also shifted somewhat in favor of the U.S. Dollar this week. The Federal Reserve raised its target rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% at its September meeting and maintained a firm anti-inflation stance, while the latest projections still allow for another hike later in 2026. That has supported the dollar relative to currencies such as sterling. The Bank of England, meanwhile, kept Bank Rate at 3.75% with a 6–3 vote, but the message was not completely dovish. UK inflation reached 3.1% in August, and the BoE warned that persistent energy-price pressures could push inflation above 4% in early 2027, leaving the door open to future tightening. So the fundamental picture is not one-sided. The BoE has become more concerned about inflation, which can support GBP, but the Fed has just delivered a hike and the U.S. dollar has recently benefited from higher-rate expectations. Recent market reporting also shows GBP/USD sitting around a multi-week low after the hawkish Fed move. That combination makes me more comfortable keeping the Daily technical bias bearish, while waiting for a better price rather than selling into support. My Trading Plan for Next Week Bias: SELL GBP/USD I don't want to sell around 1.3360 after the recent decline. My preferred setup is a retracement into the 1.3580–1.3680 bearish Order Block / supply area, followed by clear bearish confirmation. Sell Zone: 1.3580–1.3680 Invalidation: Above 1.3800 TP1: 1.3300 Main Target: 1.3100–1.3150 The setup is simple for me: let GBP/USD retrace into the Daily supply, wait for sellers to show themselves, and then follow the bearish structure toward the lower liquidity and demand zones. I’m not interested in forcing a short at the current support. Patience is important here because the market could easily bounce before making the next leg lower. For next week, my view remains clear: GBP/USD bearish — sell the retracement, not the current low.