FX.co ★ Royal_king | EUR/USD

Based on the provided H1 chart for EURUSD, the current candle has an Open at 1.14820, High at 1.14821, Low at 1.14789, and Close at 1.14803. This is a small bearish candle closing slightly below its open and right at the key horizontal level of 1.14803. The chart shows a significant uptrend from early August, rallying from around 1.14495 to a peak near 1.17245, followed by a sharp and sustained decline that has now brought price back to the 1.14803 zone. A red moving average line is visible above, currently near 1.15320, acting as dynamic resistance and confirming the broader bearish pressure. The candle's close at the key level suggests the market is testing this support after the recent sell-off. Buying (Long) Plan: A long trade here is a counter-trend bet on a bounce from the 1.14803 support, which coincides with the recent low area. The entry trigger would be a confirmed H1 candle closing above 1.14821 (the current candle's high), signaling that buyers are stepping back in. A more conservative entry could wait for a break above 1.15320 (the red moving average), which would confirm a short-term reversal. The stop-loss should be placed below the recent low at 1.14789, ideally at 1.14700, just under the psychological level. Initial profit targets are the next resistance levels: 1.15320, then 1.15595, and 1.15870. Selling (Short) Plan: The dominant trend remains bearish, so shorting a breakdown or a rejection at resistance is the higher-probability approach. The primary short entry trigger is a confirmed H1 candle closing below 1.14789 (the current candle's low), indicating that the support has failed and sellers are resuming control. A more conservative entry could be a rejection from the red moving average near 1.15320, confirmed by a bearish reversal pattern. The stop-loss should be placed above the current candle's high at 1.14821, or more conservatively above 1.15320 for a swing trade. Profit targets are the next support levels: 1.14495, then 1.14200, and 1.14000.

Confirmation and Risk Management: Given the H1 timeframe, confirmation is critical to avoid false breakouts during the pause. Wait for a clear close outside the 1.14789–1.14821 range before acting. For longs, a strong bullish candle closing above 1.14821 with volume would provide conviction. For shorts, a bearish engulfing or pin bar at the red line would strengthen the signal. Risk per trade should be limited to 1–2% of capital, with position sizing based on the stop distance (approx. 20–30 pips). Scenario Planning: 1. Bullish Bounce: Price holds 1.14803 and breaks above 1.14821, targeting 1.15320 and higher. 2. Bearish Continuation: Price closes below 1.14789, targeting 1.14495 and lower. 3. Consolidation: Price oscillates between 1.14789 and 1.14821; avoid trading until a clear breakout occurs. In conclusion, the market is at a critical decision point at 1.14803. The sharp decline from the highs puts the burden of proof on buyers to defend this support. The prudent approach is to wait for a confirmed breakout in either direction before committing capital, using the red moving average as a dynamic guide for trend direction.