FX.co ★ Jackroay | USD/JPY

I focus on resistance and support levels, volumes, and baseline indicators as the foundation of my analysis, and I observe how political tension between the United States and Europe contrasts with Japan’s quiet consistency, and I notice how the pair has both risen and fallen sharply over the last twenty-four hours, and I remind myself that domestic issues in Japan remain unresolved even as the Bank of Japan maintains its cautious monetary stance. I see on my chart that the pair has tested the 157.60 level and is now trading near 157.98, and I interpret the RSI sitting in the middle of its range and pointing slightly upward as a sign of hesitation rather than conviction, and I treat the AO’s weak buy signal as a fragile invitation rather than a command. I recognize that price remains trapped within the previous day’s range, and I conclude that momentum is limited even though a mild upward continuation is possible, and I project that resistance near 158.70 may soon be tested. I recommend cautious buying toward 158.60 because I believe the structure still favors limited upside, and I constantly remind myself that sudden volatility can invalidate any plan, and I insist on careful risk management before committing capital. I estimate that an internal pattern could develop if price reaches the 14.6 percent Fibonacci resistance at 158.70, and I observe that bullish pressure has been building after yesterday’s failed approach to resistance and subsequent pullback toward support. I see renewed growth forming and I expect an attempt toward that Fibonacci level, and I anticipate that once the internal pattern completes, a corrective move toward the 61.8 percent target near 156.40 could unfold. I note the daily doji with equal shadows and I interpret it as uncertainty dominating the near-term outlook, and I acknowledge that despite the dollar’s weakness, the pair has held firm on the daily chart. I expect from a wave perspective that decline remains possible, but I admit that confirmation requires a decisive break from the extended ascending channel, and I therefore accept that the upward structure remains intact for now and that upside risk must still be respected.

I recall that on the four-hour chart there were two failed breakdowns near 157.14, and I interpret those rebounds as signs of underlying demand, and I position myself mentally for another northward attempt based on emerging buy signals. I notice that both the RVI and DeM oscillators have turned upward, and I treat this alignment as supportive of a move toward 159.32, and I identify that zone as a liquidity pool likely to attract price. I outline a trading plan that favors continuation higher while staying alert for exhaustion, and I shift my attention to the daily timeframe where January’s wave structure continues to build upward. I observe that the MACD remains in the upper buy zone and above its signal line, and I recall how December’s double attempt to break below 154.37 failed and formed a double-bottom pattern that reignited the uptrend. I conclude that sellers are being absorbed and forced to fuel further growth, and I believe the market is targeting the 2024 high near 162.14, which I can see clearly on the weekly chart even though it is hidden on the daily. I note that price already surpassed the early-2025 high, and I expect only after breaking the 2024 peak that a meaningful reversal and deeper correction may occur. I therefore restrict my strategy to shorter timeframes and long positions while the target remains unmet, and I recognize that the yen’s persistent weakness may be a deliberate policy choice that supports export competitiveness. I observe bearish divergence on the MACD and I interpret the recent pullback as a trap designed to accumulate sellers before another upward push, and I remain convinced that the all-time high will be challenged before any sustained decline begins.