FX.co ★ Pi-Network | XAU/USD, GOLD

GOLD (XAU/USD) - H4 TECHNICAL & FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS On the H4 timeframe, Gold is exhibiting a consolidation phase following a significant prior uptrend, as evidenced by the higher swing highs and higher swing lows visible on the left side of the chart. The current price action shows the metal trading at 4197.35, having rejected the recent high near 4210.34 and finding initial support above 4191.55. This places price in a pivotal zone, testing the midpoint of the recent range. The key technical indicators reflect this indecision. The RSI(14) at 47.58 is neutral, hovering just below the midline, suggesting a slight loss of bullish momentum but no entrenched bearish pressure. The MACD(12,26,9), with a histogram value of 5.315 and signal line at 5.359, shows a near-convergence, indicating weakening bullish momentum and a potential for a bearish crossover if price pressure continues downwards. Fundamentally, Gold is caught between opposing forces. Persistent geopolitical tensions and concerns over global economic growth continue to provide a foundational support for its safe-haven appeal. However, the primary headwind remains the monetary policy outlook of major central banks, particularly the U.S. Federal Reserve. Stronger-than-expected economic data and hawkish rhetoric have cemented expectations that interest rates will remain "higher for longer," which increases the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Gold and caps significant rallies. This fundamental tug-of-war is manifesting technically as the current range-bound consolidation. TRADE SETUP & SUMMARY: The immediate structure is corrective within a broader bullish trend.The critical support confluence is between 4131.10 (previous resistance turned support) and the psychological 4100 level. A hold above this zone, potentially with a bullish RSI divergence, would present a high-probability long opportunity targeting a retest of 4210.34 and the swing high at 4250.50. Conversely, a decisive bearish break and close below 4131.10 could signal a deeper correction towards 4071.40 and possibly 4011.70. Given the neutral momentum readings, the bias is cautiously bullish but awaiting a clearer signal. A prudent strategy would be to wait for a pullback to the 4131-4150 support zone for a long entry with a tight stop below 4131, or for a bullish breakout above 4210.34 with confirmation for a continuation trade. Traders should monitor upcoming U.S. employment and inflation data for the next catalyst to break the current equilibrium.