FX.co ★ Jackroay | AUD/USD

I interpret the current AUDUSD structure as a conflicting but ultimately bearish setup on the shorter timeframes, despite the broader bullish attempts visible on higher charts. I note that the pair is trading at 0.66319 and remains below the fast 10-period moving average, which encourages me to prioritize short positions. I identify 0.66593 as my preferred sell entry after evaluating a cluster of nearby levels, and I place my stop loss at 0.66713 to limit potential adverse movement. I treat 0.66063 as my primary lower target, aligning it with one of the key support levels. I track the ongoing price action on the 30-minute chart and keep 0.66215 under close observation as an intraday objective for exiting part of my position. I consider selling to be justified while the price remains below 0.66348, and I note that any breakout and consolidation above this level would force me to reconsider buys toward 0.66481. I pay close attention to tick volume and the Bollinger Bands structure, as they often give me early hints about either continuation or early reversal. I incorporate MACD and Parabolic-SAR into my monitoring process after entries trigger, allowing me to refine risk management during the active trade.

I also observe a very different landscape on the 4-hour and weekly timeframes, which makes me more cautious in how I size positions. I see the price trading above the Ichimoku cloud, confirming sustained bullish momentum and steady advances in recent sessions. I view the move above the initial resistance level as a sign that the bulls maintain short-term control, and I treat the rising stochastic as confirmation that buyers may attempt to push toward 0.6717 and possibly 0.6772. I accept that a corrective pullback toward 0.6695 is possible, but I do not expect it to lead to a deeper drop into the 0.6394–0.6296 support zone right now. I analyze the broader structure and conclude that the long-term direction still leans downward due to the broken descending wedge, the bearish CCI convergence, and the rejection from the multi-year trendline drawn from the 2021 peak. I consider the recent rally a second-wave pullback before a larger third wave forms to the downside. I hold 0.6365 as my primary medium-term target and treat the 161.8% Fibonacci level as a longer-term objective. I acknowledge that the recent rise mainly cleared liquidity above local highs before the expected decline resumes, and I maintain my view that short setups remain the most logical choice on the lower timeframes.